{"id":1772,"date":"2019-10-07T15:42:25","date_gmt":"2019-10-07T14:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/?p=1772"},"modified":"2019-10-07T16:19:53","modified_gmt":"2019-10-07T15:19:53","slug":"avoiding-boris-johnsons-people-v-politicians-election-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/avoiding-boris-johnsons-people-v-politicians-election-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoiding Boris Johnson\u2019s \u201cPeople v Politicians election\u201d trap"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Boris Johnson, making statement after Commons returned from unlawful prorogation<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

News of Dominic Cummings describing the present Brexit chaos as \u201ca walk in the park\u201d<\/a> nails the idea that what\u2019s been going on recently is an inept Prime Minister making a mess.<\/p>\n

Boris Johnson has been talking of a \u201cPeople v Politicians\u201d election soon. He could do well, especially if he gets to dictate the timetable and force an election this autumn (as he seems to want).<\/p>\n

Horror at his conduct is causing a surge of support for the Liberal Democrats, and there is the temptation to support an election because it will almost certainly produce many more Liberal Democrat MPs, but the real risk is that they will be opposing a deeply dangerous Johnson-majority government.<\/p>\n

On the other side, what\u2019s going on now can be spun as pro-Remain MPs and pro-Remain civil servants conspiring with pro-Remain judges to subvert \u201cthe will of the people\u201d.<\/p>\n

Comments I\u2019ve seen on twitter include: \u201cI am hoping that Boris, Cummings and JRM are just using prorogation as distraction for the main event\u201d and \u201cI agree with everything Boris said\u201d (in his Commons statement<\/a> after Parliament resumed sitting). <\/p>\n

The polls show support for Johnson and for the Conservative party at a level that is a million miles from what I\u2019d expect of a Prime Minister who\u2019s just lost a major Supreme Court case \u2014 but isn\u2019t crazy in the light of Tory facebook adverts attacking \u201copposition leaders for wanting \u2018to ignore our Brexit vote\u2019\u201d<\/a>, The Sun<\/em>, The Express<\/em> and The Daily Mail<\/em> attacking the Supreme Court judges and The Daily Mail<\/em><\/a> saying \u201cMore than half of British voters want an election NOW as they blast \u2018Establishment plot\u2019 to block Brexit\u201d. <\/p>\n

As it stands, if Johnson ignores (or finds a way round) the Benn Act to crash us our of the EU on 31 October, the top news stories will be that Brexit has happened, outrage from most MPs, and (doubtless) the start of another court case. Those can all be spun as anger from \u201cthe establishment\u201d. That\u2019s an effective way to bury the stories about queues of lorries at Dover and problems on the Irish border. Those who were alarmed earlier in the year by the stories of the military being ready in case of rioting if Brexit happens will not have been re-assured by Johnson tweeting a photo of himself surrounded by senior military<\/a> on 19 September.<\/p>\n

Expelling 21 respected MPs gave Johnson a way to be seen to make a stand against the \u201cremainer Establishment\u201d. If he ends up in the courts again, he can, again, be painted as making a \u201cheroic stand\u201d. His supporters like this.<\/p>\n

The Leave campaign did a brilliant job of preying on people\u2019s fears. They never presented a coherent image of how we would leave the EU. They dangled impossible hopes that are still there because they have not yet collided with reality.<\/p>\n

David Cameron wasn\u2019t the only person to assume a Leave victory was unthinkable. An \u201cunthinkable\u201d Johnson victory only needs the pedalling of more impossible hopes \u2014 especially if \u201cthey\u201d or \u201cthe establishment\u201d can be blamed when they are shown to be impossible.<\/p>\n

For now, this means delaying a General Election, at least until the reality of Johnson\u2019s \u201cBrexit deal\u201d Johnson cuts through the hubris and until realistic assessments of what \u201cno deal\u201d would mean get heard. It will be essential to portray an election now as irresponsible (which it is), rather than just an \u201cestablishment delay\u201d.<\/p>\n

The anxiety this is stirring up makes it hard to think. It will frighten some people into voting Conservative, mistaking Johnson\u2019s \u201cstrong man\u201d language for competence and wisdom. <\/p>\n

The Liberal Democrats messaging will need to be clear and stable, speaking to those who have seen through Johnson and those who can be seduced by his fake simplicities. <\/p>\n

\nThs originally appeared on Liberal Democrat Voice<\/a> on 28 September 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is a very real risk of Boris Johnson\u2019s newly right-wing Conservatives winning a snap election by the same distortion of truth and pedalling of fantasy that enabled Leave to win in the referendum. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[249,72,2],"tags":[43,262],"class_list":["post-1772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-boris-johnson","category-brexit-politics","category-politics","tag-boris-johnson","tag-general-election"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1772"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1780,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1772\/revisions\/1780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}