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I want to describe his trip to Durham during the lockdown as somewhere between \u201cgrossly irresponsible\u201d and \u201cutterly foolish\u201d. But it is a little too easy to write him off.<\/p>\n
This is the man who took a pile of grievances about things that had little to do with the European Union and coalesced them into a vote for Brexit \u2014 even though this will make life worse for most of those who voted for it.<\/p>\n
This is the man who (apparently) took last year\u2019s parliamentary stalement and Boris Johnson\u2019s illegal prorogation of Parliament and enabled the Tories to win a handsome majority \u2014 even though the tiny increase in the Conservative vote makes it look more like a vote against a Corbyn government than support for a Johnson one. <\/p>\n
His Durham trip has been roundly condemned, but he\u2019s survived. I fear that, once again, he has done something I think is foolish, but which might just work to his advantage.
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Covid19 is a strange illness because many people show no symptoms, and many more don\u2019t need hospital treatment. We are taking it seriously because of its severe effects on a minority. But there will be people suffering financially or emotionally because of the lockdown who will want \u2014 and perhaps need \u2014 to see this as an exaggeration. Occasionally in the UK, and more often in the US, people have wanted to dismiss it as \u201cno worse than flu\u201d. Just because that is a denial of reality doesn\u2019t mean people are not thinking it. Cummings\u2019 dress and behaviour seems calculated to say \u201cthe establishment is wrong\u201d \u2014 he\u2019s just positioned himself as the hero of people who see concern over Covid19 as \u201cthe establishment\u201d making life difficult.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s given a perfect excuse to anyone wanting to break the rules, in this lockdown, or in future ones.<\/p>\n
The government seems to have been trying to avoid creating a situation where its scientists are drawn into commenting on what Cummings did. That\u2019s probably right, but for people frightened by the scientists\u2019 comments, or who have \u201chad enough of experts\u201d, what he\u2019s done is to sideline them.<\/p>\n
The storm has also pushed away from the front pages the very real figures for Covid19 deaths in the UK, which are high enough to put a question mark over the wisdom of relaxing the lockdown. It\u2019s also pushed away the complexity of talks with the EU over a post-Brexit deal and sidelined the wise politicians who are saying that we should extend the transition period rather than have the economy being badly hurt both by Covid19 and by Brexit.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re nowhere near the end of the Covid19 saga. Numbers will go up again as the lockdown is relaxed. Cummings has undermined the effectiveness of lockdown, so we will face more stories of very real suffering than we would have done had he stayed in London. They will help to hide bad news stories about negotiations with the EU, which were always going to be difficult, and are now also delayed. They also make easier to blame Covid19 for the very real economic damage of Brexit \u2014 especially if we leave without an agreement.<\/p>\n
I hope I am wrong. I hope Cummings was just \u201cvery foolish\u201d. But if I am right, the first thing we need to do is name the problem. We shouldn\u2019t be blinded by anger at his folly the folly was a calculated ruse to hide something more sinister.<\/p>\n
PS (13 June):<\/b> The deadline for the UK to request an extension for the Brexit implementation period is 30 June. The fuss around this trip dominated the headlines and drew attention from this. The sense of people being frustrated by lockdown provided a perfect justification for relaxing it, creating a sense that \u201cthings are improving\u201d, which has also drawn attention from government ministers refusing a Brexit extension. This has been presented as if it is a minor deal. Yet the infection rates in many parts of the country are still close to one \u2014 even with lockdown. That means that, already, each person infected, infects one other.<\/p>\n
Relaxing the rules, especially when summer encourages people to gather in groups, means the infection rate will go up. I am concerned that the language around relaxing the rules isn\u2019t \u201crelaxing the rules in a way that keeps infection under control but eases the harm to people\u2019s livelihoods\u201d, it\u2019s just an optimistic \u201crelaxing the rules\u201d. Optimism can be great, but not when it turns into \u201cno-deal Brexit will be fine if we\u2019re optimistic about it\u201d when the reality is it will do real harm.<\/p>\n
This comes on the back of repeated comments about Cummings behaviour. Back in September 2019 Carole Cadwalladr wrote in The Guardian<\/em><\/a> of “The real reason we should fear the work of Dominic Cummings”, saying that “Downing Street\u2019s controversial top adviser faces new accusations of poisoning politics, but his true nature was clear during Vote Leave\u2019s Brexit triumph”. She has a point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nThe Independent<\/em>, 13 June 2020: published: The Tories just refused to extend the Brexit transition period because of coronavirus and people are furious<\/a>. They are right.\n<\/div>\n