![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/capitol_riot_plus_trump2-1-150x150.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Watching a documentary about the rise of Nazism<\/a> on the weekend before Biden\u2019s inauguration, I am struck by historical echoes.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t buy the idea that Hitler \u201cmagically\u201d cast a spell over the German people. In another time he might have been a failed artist ranting on a street corner, ignored by passers-by. The point is that his words struck a chord. They gave form to a range of not-quite-articulated grievances. <\/p>\n In another blog post<\/a> I tried out the idea of \u201cquasi-religious\u201d support for Brexit, suggesting that some of the Brexiteer myths got support because they focussed people\u2019s anxieties. An obvious example is immigration. \u201cImmigrants taking out job\u201d and \u201cimmigrants scrounging our benefits\u201d don\u2019t work together: an immigrant can\u2019t be both taking our jobs and our benefits. They don\u2019t make economic sense either \u2014 as the evidence is that the economic activity of immigrants boosts the economy. But the myth of \u201cimmigrants taking our jobs\/benefits\u201d might well resonate for people living with lack, who don\u2019t hear their experience reflected in the words of political leaders. The problem is that the words are not on the lips of political leaders because things are more complex than that \u2014 which is heard as \u201cpoliticians don\u2019t care\u201d. I\u2019m mentioning Brexit, but one of the Hitler echoes is that there never was a \u201cJewish problem\u201d, but it was a shorthand for issues that were more complex. Using that shorthand might have had an emotional appeal, but it did no more than enable immense suffering. One of the points that documentary makes very powerfully is the sense of national shame associated with losing the First World War. At the time of the Versailles conference, Pope Benedict XV gave a prescient warning<\/a> that \u201cthe peace conditions and the humiliation of the Germans would likely result in another war as soon as Germany would be militarily in a position to start one\u201d.<\/p>\n The historical echo is that humiliating Trump also humiliates the followers who have put their trust in him. It risks making them angry and entrenching them in their position.<\/p>\n Things might have looked very different in Germany if there had been space for leadership that enabled people to see that the Jews were not to blame for the things laid at their door. Things might have been different in the UK-heading-to-referendum if our political leadership had been able to articulate the reality that immigrants are not to blame for the things laid at their door. Right now, the USA needs leadership from the administration that enables people to see that Trump\u2019s enemies are not to blame for the ills laid at their door. A warning is that it was very difficult for British politicians to challenge the attacks on immigration. A glimmer of hope is that \u201cTrump\u2019s enemies\u201d are not (for now) a group that\u2019s so well defined that it is easy to attack.<\/p>\n Borrowing an idea from Christina Wieland\u2019s book The fascist state of mind and the manufacturing of masculinity<\/em>, I want to suggest that a key element in the emergence of fascist leadership is a sense of union between follower and leader. It was \u201cmein<\/em> F\u00fchrer\u201d. This is more than the normal attitude of people to their country\u2019s leader. <\/p>\n The fascist leader gets power not from being particularly wise, but from having the ability to say things that collect people\u2019s hard-to-articulate emotions and give them shape. Trump\u2019s followers say \u201che tells it like it is\u201d not because he is right, but because his words give form to what they are feeling. <\/p>\n A wise leader would help people engage with the complexity of today\u2019s world. Crucially this includes the decline of the USA relative to China and India. The cry of \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d is about escaping to an imagined \u201csafe\u201d time in the past, where a wise leader would enable the USA to navigate its changing place in the world, and do that in a way that helps those losing out from the change. At the time of Trump\u2019s election people commented that the \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d caps being worn by his supporters had \u201cmade in China\u201d signs inside \u2014 that was a stark reminder that his slogan was ignoring the reality of a changed world.<\/p>\n On 6 January 2021, comments from protestors at The Capitol included<\/a>: Since then some have spoken<\/a> of Trump\u2019s \u201cGod-like\u201d status for some of the Proud Boys. His own message telling his supporters to go home on 6 January<\/a>, is very personal \u2014 it\u2019s to supporters feeling themselves to be in a personal relationship to him, horribly reminscent of Wieland\u2019s description of fascist leadership, from \u201cI know your pain\u201d to \u201cwe love you\u201d:<\/p>\n \n\u201cI know your pain, I know your hurt. We had an election that was stolen from us. It was a landslide election and everyone knows it, especially the other side. But you have to go home now. We have to have peace. We have to have law and order. We have to respect our great people in law and order. We don\u2019t want anybody hurt. It\u2019s a very tough period of time. There\u2019s never been a time like this where such a thing happened, where they could take it away from all of us, from me, from you, from our country. This was a fraudulent election, but we can\u2019t play into the hands of these people. We have to have peace. So, go home. We love you. You\u2019re very special. You\u2019ve seen what happens. You see the way others are treated that are so bad and so evil. I know how you feel. but go home, and go home in peace.\u201d\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The full text<\/a> of his \u201cSave America Rally\u201d in the Eclipse that has sparked the impeachment for \u201cincitement to insurrection\u201d is shot through with the same highly personal rhetoric. Whether the US Senate will choose to convict Trump remains to be seen. The more disturbing one is how far the personalised language also mobilises his supporters.<\/p>\n The message is getting through: a Yougov<\/a> poll after January 6 2021 found 45% of Republicans supporting the rioters.<\/p>\n An obvious answer is indeed for Trump to be impeached and convicted. Democrats are clearly willing to do this. Some Republicans in the House of Representatives also voted to impeach, and there may (or may not) be enough willing to do this in the Senate to reach the required 2\/3 majority.<\/p>\n This meets the understandable anger of people horrified by four years of Trump and even more horrified by his behaviour since defeat. But it also inflames the anger of his supporters. If they really believe that the election was stolen, then this would prove that the \u201cpolitical establishment\u201d was out to get him. That\u2019s a narrative he\u2019s been trading on since his 2016 campaign. One of the jaw-drop moments in the 2020 presidential debates had him (as the elected President) dismiss Joe Biden as a \u201cpolitician\u201d \u2014 as if he wasn\u2019t. It\u2019s remarkably reminiscent of Brexit supporters in the UK who read the Supreme Court\u2019s decision that the Johnson government had illegally prorogued parliament not as evidence of illegal action by the government, but of obstruction by the \u201cremainer establishment\u201d.<\/p>\n Trump standing again in 2024 is indeed a dreadful prospect. It takes a while for a new administration\u2019s economic policies to take effect. Economic improvements early in his term were the fruits of Obama\u2019s policies \u2014 but I assume he\u2019d claim the credit for those, and blame Biden for the consequences of Trump-era policies he inherits. I assume he\u2019d also blame Biden for the economic consequences of Covid19 \u2014 rather than admit that those have been made worse by his own failings. The risk is that he, or another person with a similar approach could come back in 2024.<\/p>\n The First World War came to an end surprisingly quickly. After years of little movement, the 1918 \u201cspring offensive\u201d saw the Germans advancing rapidly. Kaiser Wilhelm II declared a national holiday on 24 March to celebrate the progress. Many assumed victory was now in sight. But they had over-stretched their supply lines and were vulnerable to counter-attack. When that counter-attack came the Germans rapidly realised that victory was most improbable. On 29 September Generals Ludendorf and Hindenburg told the Kaiser that the Western front could not be held and said it was time to sue for peace.<\/p>\n Told like that, the story is unsurprising. The success of the \u201cspring offensive\u201d had changed everything. But to some the sudden shift of narrative from imminent success to imminent defeat was hard to understand. Rumours that the valiant German nation had been \u201cstabbed in the back\u201d gained traction. <\/p>\n In my mind there is a parallel between this \u201cunthinkable\u201d defeat and Trump\u2019s \u201cunthinkable\u201d defeat in November, in that the \u201cunthinkable\u201d nature of the defeat means someone must have stolen it. Fortunately Trump\u2019s accusations over this are vague, so there isn\u2019t a small and well-defined group for his supporters to scapegoat. <\/p>\n Just after the First World War, the \u201cstabbed in the back\u201d theory was not widely supported. But it was just enough to focus a range of the disaffected. If that figure of 45% of Republicans supporting the rioters from January 6 reflects ongoing support, then Trump\u2019s \u201cstolen election\u201d narrative will be dangerous, not because it contains any truth, but because some will resonate with the lie that \u201csomeone\u201d has stolen the future that will \u201cmake America great again\u201d \u2014 and is to blame for America\u2019s apparent failure to turn the clock back.<\/p>\n The world needs Biden to establish himself as a very different leader, able to tell the American people of the real problems they face from America\u2019s changing place in the world and the effects of Covid19, able to hear (and be seen to hear) the pain that is there, and help people navigate the changing reality. That requires a leader of enormous depth and sincerity. Nelson Mandela leaps to mind as an example. Hopefully Biden is up to it.<\/p>\n Trump will doubtless carp from the sidelines. He\u2019s been brilliantly successful in raising money to fight the cases rejected by the courts to challenge the 2020 election \u2014 and the small print on his appeals means he can apply unused money to his campaign. <\/p>\n There seem to be rather a lot of court cases in the wings, at state and federal levels. <\/p>\n Trump\u2019s claims to have paid very little tax because he\u2019s so \u201csmart\u201d might well be his Achilles\u2019 heel. We all pay tax. Most of us don\u2019t like paying tax but also recognise that it is needed. If this adds up to enough to bring a trial on tax offences then that is politically neutral. Right now I\u2019d encourage the justice department to prioritise allegations of this sort, that are politically neutral. They matter \u2014 as it matters that everyone pays their taxes \u2014 but they are also things that have the least risk of inflaming his supporters.<\/p>\n Offences like \u201cincitement to insurrection\u201d are more difficult because his supporters will see them as \u201cdefending democracy\u201d. The Democrats in Congress might want to censure Trump and stop him standing again. But some of these things might be right for a Presidential pardon \u2014 if Biden can be very clear that he is doing this for the unity of the country, not because the offenses don\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n At best, this models the opposite of Trump \u2014 a wise leader seeking to be \u201cPresident for all Americans\u201d. There\u2019s a parallel with Al Gore conceding in 2000. His concession speech included<\/a>:<\/p>\n \n\u201cNow the U.S. Supreme Court has spoken. Let there be no doubt, while I strongly disagree with the court’s decision, I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Electoral College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity of the people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession. <\/p>\n \u201cI also accept my responsibility, which I will discharge unconditionally, to honor the new president-elect and do everything possible to help him bring Americans together in fulfillment of the great vision that our Declaration of Independence defines and that our Constitution affirms and defends.\u201d There are two subtleties here:<\/p>\n Biden will need exceptional leadership skills to navigate Trump\u2019s departure in a way that doesn\u2019t set the USA up for a revival of Trumpim. He might just have those skills.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The case for impeaching Trump seems overwhelming: but is it wise? The risk is that it inflames division and creates a future for Trumpsim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[297,288,314,2],"tags":[315],"class_list":["post-2192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-biden","category-donald-trump","category-facism","category-politics","tag-riot-at-us-capitol"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2192"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2210,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2192\/revisions\/2210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markargent.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/p>\nHints of fascist leadership<\/h2>\n
\n\u201cThis nation wasn\u2019t founded on civility. This nation was founded on revolutionary activity. We became civil after the government realised that they got overwhelmed.\u201d, \u201cI feel very privileged that I was a part of yesterday. I fight for freedom and democracy.\u201d, \u201cWe had the greatest president of our lifetime sacrificing his golden years to make this country what it should be and what it always has been.\u201d and \u201cI firmly believe this is our 1776. Two things are going to happen: either another revolution or a civil war.\u201d A discarded banner inside the Capitol said \u201ctreason\u201d as commentators started to use the same word for Trump\u2019s incitement of his supporters. These people are buying the narrative of a \u201cstolen election\u201d not because there is actual evidence that it was stolen, but because that is what they want to be true.<\/p>\nNot inflaming Trump\u2019s base<\/h2>\n
Stabbed in the back (or not)<\/h2>\n
What should Biden do?<\/h2>\n
\nShowing the dignity and wisdom Trump lacked would be a powerful gesture of healing.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Conclusion<\/h2>\n